2012 Election Predictions

Edit: You can read the results post here.


Methodology

Candidates are listed by office, along with a breakdown of active registered voters in that district (Statewide, Congressional, State Senate and State House) of Republicans, Democrats and Unaffiliated.
All offices (besides District Attorney) will also have a rating of 1 to 7 following the district name in (parentheses), based on the following scale:
  • 1 = Democrat Pick-up (basically a lock)
  • 2 = Strong Democrat (anticipated Democrat victory or hold-over)
  • 3 = Leans Democrat (likely Democrat victory or hold-over)
  • 4 = Toss-up (seat could either go Republican or Democrat, too close to call)
  • 5 = Lean Republican (likely Republican victory or hold-over)
  • 6 = Strong Republican (anticipated Republican victory or hold-over)
  • 7 = Republican Pick-up (basically a lock)

 Italics in the lists below indicate incumbency.

Additionally, for State House and Senate races only, you will find a "D" or "R" followed by "+[#]" indicating how well over the state average that State House or Senate district performed in 2010.  If Republicans out-performed Democrats in that district, it will be an "R+"; likewise, if Democrats out-performed Republicans in that district, it will be a "D+".  This will help give an idea of what we can expect performance-wise in 2012.  The 2010 State Average performance for U.S. Senate and Treasurer (since that was the metric used by the Reapportionment Commission--I did exclude the Gubernatorial numbers due to the uniqueness of that 2010 election) is 46.46% Republican, and 46.62% Democrat (combined overall vote % in those 2 races)

Please note that this is meant for informational purposes only and as a guideline for what may happen in the election, based on the breakdown of active registered voters by percentage (numbers accurate as of 1 October, 2012 from the Colorado Secretary of State's Office--note that the numbers after the close of voter registration on 9 October have not been published on the SOS website yet, and while apparently they do not help Republicans overall, it is yet to be seen how this will affect active registered voters, something we can only know after Election Day).  In districts that I know better, sometimes the rating will take into account other factors (candidate performance, past district performance, etc.), but are largely based on active voter registration and 2010 district performance.

Candidates are listed alphabetically by last name.  If I easily found their website (i.e. it was on the first page of Google when I search), I linked to it as well.

Please note: I've chosen to represent the following Parties only: American Constitution Party, Democrat Party, Libertarian Party, Republican Party.  Simply put, almost all races (with the exception of Congressional and less than a handful of the rest) below only have candidates from one of those four Parties.  I'm sticking to the three "major" Parties and the Libertarians, since they have candidates in more races than the ACP does.  It's not meant as a snub to other Parties or candidates, I'm simply trying to be consistent.  To see a complete list of candidates, including write-ins, Green Party and unaffiliated, check out the Colorado Secretary of State's Official Candidate List for the 2012 General Election.



Redistricting and Reapportionment


After Redistricting and Reapportionment (for much more info on both, check out Clear The Bench Colorado, the only reference that has thoroughly and continuously been covering both topics since 2009), are you unsure about what districts in which you now reside?  You can go to the Secretary of State's website to find every district you live in (from Congressional to School Board).  You can also check here to see maps of the new districts (Congressional and State House/Senate).  The districts listed below denote the county(ies) comprising the district for ease of reference.

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Judges

As always, for all your judicial questions, check out Clear The Bench Colorado for substantive evaluations on higher-court (and some lower-court) judges (The "Blue Book" isn't Scottish, and if it isn't Scottish...
it's crap!).  My take on the statewide judges:
  • Justice Coats (Supreme Court): Retain (he's not great, but he's definitely not terrible)
  • Judge Booras (Court of Appeals): Do Not Retain (she's too all over the board to keep)
  • Judge Casebolt (Court of Appeals): Retain (seems this guy actually values the Constitution)
  • Judge Graham (Court of Appeals): Retain (largely seems to uphold the Constitution)
  • Judge Miller (Court of Appeals): Do Not Retain (not a fan of the Constitution, it would seem)
  • Judge Taubman (Court of Appeals): Do Not Retain (unreliable)
  • Judge Webb (Court of Appeals): Retain (another one who appears to value the Constitution)

Remember, on Judges... when in doubt, always vote to Not Retain.  


Ballot Initiatives

Since we only have three ballot initiatives, here's my brief take on them (you can find some information from the SOS website):
  • Amendment 64 (legalizing marijuana) -- no recommendation, I think it will pass, and I'm leaning towards yes because of the 10th Amendment issue, otherwise I probably won't even bother voting on it since I couldn't care any less about it myself.
  • Amendment 65 (ban Citizen's United and implement caps on campaign expenditures and contributions) -- NO, this one is terrible, violates the 1st Amendment in so many ways and is largely unenforceable in any case (just a set-up for next election's propaganda)
  • Amendment S (updates to State Personnel System) -- NO, I don't know enough about it to advocate one way or the other, but my gut feeling is no, and that is always my default when I don't know enough to say "yes".


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CANDIDATES



CU Regent

Current Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans

At-Large (3) -- Statewide

Rep: 34.79%
Dem: 32.21%
Uaf: 31.88%

Congressional District 3 (3) -- Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Custer, Delta, Delores, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Huerfano, Jackson, La Plata, Lake, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Pitkin, Pueblo, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel

Rep: 37.64%
Dem: 31.38%
Uaf: 29.88%

Congressional District 5 (6) -- Chaffee, El Paso, Fremont, Park, Teller

  • Gina Biolchini (American Constitution Party)
  • Steven Hartmann (Libertarian)
  • Kyle Hybl (Republican)
Rep: 46.57%
Dem: 21.73%
Uaf: 30.54%

Congressional District 7 (3) -- Adams, Jefferson

Rep: 30.67%
Dem: 34.97%
Uaf: 33.29%



State Board of Education

Current Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats

Congressional District 2 (2) -- Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gilpin, Grand, Jefferson, Larimer, Park, Summit

Rep: 29.64%
Dem: 33.43%
Uaf: 35.64%

Congressional District 4 (6) -- Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Boulder, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Las Animas, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Otero, Phillips, Prowers, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld, Yuma

  • Steven Dellinger (Libertarian)
  • Pam Mazanec (Republican)
Rep: 44.61%
Dem: 23.61%
Uaf: 30.91%



Congressional

Current Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 2 toss-ups (my bet is at least one, CD7, goes R)

Congressional District 1 (2) -- Arapahoe, Denver, Jefferson

Rep: 20.48%
Dem: 46.97%
Uaf: 31.16%

Congressional District 2 (4*) -- Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gilpin, Grand, Jefferson, Larimer, Park, Summit

Rep: 29.64%
Dem: 33.43%
Uaf: 35.64%

*If there is any year to take out Jared Polis, this is the year.  This was the best gift that redistricting gave us, by drastically shifting the balance of power from Boulder to Larimer County.

Congressional District 3 (5*) -- Alamosa, Archuleta, Conejos, Costilla, Custer, Delta, Delores, Eagle, Garfield, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Huerfano, Jackson, La Plata, Lake, Mesa, Mineral, Moffat, Montezuma, Montrose, Ouray, Pitkin, Pueblo, Rio Blanco, Rio Grande, Routt, Saguache, San Juan, San Miguel

Rep: 37.64%
Dem: 31.38%
Uaf: 29.88%

*Because of 3rd Party candidates, this one has a potential to possibly go Democrat.  I don't normally like to play the "3rd Party candidates are bad and ruin elections" game (nor do I even think 3rd Party candidates are bad--in some instances, I would even encourage folks to vote that way and always advocate voting your conscience), but in this district and race, the reality is that it could lessen the effect of the 6.26% Republican active registered voter advantage and possibly create a Democrat pick-up in this seat.

Congressional District 4 (6) -- Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Boulder, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Las Animas, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Otero, Phillips, Prowers, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld, Yuma

Rep: 44.61%
Dem: 23.61%
Uaf: 30.91%

Congressional District 5 (6) -- Chaffee, El Paso, Fremont, Park, Teller

Rep: 46.57%
Dem: 21.73%
Uaf: 30.54%

Congressional District 6 (5) -- Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas

Rep: 36.01%
Dem: 32.21%
Uaf: 30.86%

Congressional District 7 (4*) -- Adams, Jefferson

Rep: 30.67%
Dem: 34.97%
Uaf: 33.29%

*Despite the disadvantage in active registered voters, the Republican candidate has been working hard and a lot of folks are unhappy with the Democrat incumbent.  There is a decent chance this could be a Republican pick-up.



State Senate

Current Make-up: 20 Democrats, 15 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 16 Democrats, 15 Republicans, 4 toss-ups (my guess is it goes 2 and 2 for Republicans and Democrats)

Seats up in 2014 (currently held by 8 Republicans, 7 Democrats)

  • SD1: Greg Brophy (R)
  • SD2: Kevin Grantham (R)
  • SD3: Angela Giron (D)
  • SD5: Gail Schwartz (D)
  • SD6: Ellen Roberts (R)
  • SD7: Steve King (R)
  • SD9: Kent Lambert (R)
  • SD11: John Morse (D)
  • SD13: Scott Renfroe (R)
  • SD15: Kevin Lundberg (R)
  • SD16: Jeanne Nicholson (D)
  • SD20: Cheri Jahn (D)
  • SD24: Lois Tochtrop (D)
  • SD30: Ted Harvey (R)
  • SD34: Lucia Guzman (D)

Senate District 4 (6) -- Douglas

R+18.67
Rep: 50.62%
Dem: 18.52%
Uaf: 30.12%

Senate District 8 (5) -- Garfield, Grand, Jackson, Moffat, Rio Blanco, Routt, Summitt

R+4.59
Rep: 38.28%
Dem: 24.99%
Uaf: 35.46%

Senate District 10 (6) -- El Paso

R+17.38
  • Owen Hill (Republican)
  • Brandon Hughes (Libertarian)
  • Christopher Mull (American Constitution Party)
Rep: 48.92%
Dem: 19.82%
Uaf: 30.16%

Senate District 12 (6) -- El Paso

R+15.66
Rep: 46.22%
Dem: 22.15%
Uaf: 30.53%

Senate District 14 (3*) -- Larimer

D+9.64
Rep: 28.39%
Dem: 31.20%
Uaf: 38.84%

*What was once a strong Democrat seat, Reapportionment changed to a playable one based on the active registered voters, however it still leans strongly Democrat on the district performance side.  This will likely be a retained seat by the Democrats, but by a much smaller margin than they are used to.

Senate District 17 (2*) -- Boulder

D+12.24
Rep: 26.36%
Dem: 37.81%
Uaf: 34.61%

*Matt Jones will win this seat in a district he drew for himself as a reapportionment commission member.

Senate District 18 (2) -- Boulder

D+29.49
Rep: 14.59%
Dem: 48.99%
Uaf: 34.72%

Senate District 19 (7*) -- Jefferson

D+2.65
Rep: 33.87%
Dem: 31.77%
Uaf: 33.35%

*While close, Reapportionment gave Republicans the edge in active voters this district and even with the more Democrat performance in 2010, I think it will likely be a Republican pick-up.

Senate District 21 (2) -- Adams

D+10.43
Rep: 23.40%
Dem: 43.18%
Uaf: 32.30%

Senate District 22 (4*) -- Jefferson

D+3.53
Rep: 33.74%
Dem: 32.49%
Uaf: 32.75%

*Vote registration trends slightly Republican, but performance leans Democrat.  It could go either way, but I'm going to prognosticate Democrat for this district.

Senate District 23 (6) -- Broomfield, Larimer, Weld

R+8.9
Rep: 39.68%
Dem: 25.09%
Uaf: 34.26%

Senate District 25 (4*) -- Adams

D+2.14
Rep: 29.98%
Dem: 35.47%
Uaf: 33.47%

*With a fairly hefty Democrat voter advantage, and Democrat trend in performance, I think this district will likely retain the incumbent Democrat Senator.

Senate District 26 (4*) -- Arapahoe

D+4.21
Rep: 33.98%
Dem: 33.40%
Uaf: 31.59%

*With only a slight Republican advantage in active voters, and Democrat-leaning performance in 2010, this race will be tough to call--I'll go out on a limb, based largely on how much I know the candidate is working, and say this is one the Republicans will likely pick-up.

Senate District 27 (6) -- Arapahoe

R+5.58
Rep: 41.20%
Dem: 28.09%
Uaf: 29.89%

Senate District 28 (2) -- Arapahoe

D+6.03
Rep: 30.61%
Dem: 36.59%
Uaf: 31.74%

Senate District 29 (2) -- Arapahoe

D+6.06
Rep: 28.01%
Dem: 39.62%
Uaf: 31.25%

Senate District 31 (2) -- Arapahoe, Denver

D+22.57
Rep: 19.99%
Dem: 47.39%
Uaf: 31.12%

Senate District 32 (2) -- Denver

D+21.39
Rep: 19.99%
Dem: 46.48%
Uaf: 32.09%

Senate District 33 (2) -- Denver

D+35.86
Rep: 10.14%
Dem: 60.32%
Uaf: 28.20%

Senate District 35 (4*) -- Alamosa, Baca, Bent, Conejos, Costilla, Crowley, Custer, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas, Mineral, Otero, Prowers, Pueblo, Rio Grande, Saguache

R+4
Rep: 37.85%
Dem: 39.52%
Uaf: 21.87%

* Another tough one to call, because while Republicans trail in active voters, they have an advantage in district performance.  Likely a Republican pick-up is my guess.



State House

Current Make-up: 33 Republicans, 32 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 30 Democrats, 28 Republicans, 7 toss-up (my very unscientific prediction is all but 1 or 2 go Democrat based on district performance and/or active voter registration numbers, and what I know about the district and candidates)

House District 1 (2) -- Denver, Jefferson

D+11.24
Rep: 24.46%
Dem: 43.83%
Uaf: 30.41%

House District 2 (2) -- Denver

D+26.23
Rep: 16.89%
Dem: 46.03%
Uaf: 35.20%

House District 3 (4*) -- Arapahoe

D+3.98
Rep: 34.49%
Dem: 32.24%
Uaf: 32.11%

*This should have been an easier Republican pick-up, now it's too close to call (and will likely be retained by Daniel Kagan in my opinion).

House District 4 (2) -- Denver

D+30.78
  • David Dobson (Republican)
  • Dan Pabon (Democrat)
Rep: 12.07%
Dem: 55.67%
Uaf: 30.71%

House District 5 (2) -- Denver

D+29.6
Rep: 13.59%
Dem: 51.16%
Uaf: 33.32%

House District 6 (2) -- Denver

D+21.34
Rep: 22.03%
Dem: 48.08%
Uaf: 28.74%

House District 7 (2) -- Denver

D+32.82
Rep: 11.49%
Dem: 59.69%
Uaf: 27.78%

House District 8 (2) -- Denver

D+37.54
Rep: 9.57%
Dem: 59.77%
Uaf: 29.10%

House District 9 (2) -- Arapahoe, Denver

D+15.41
Rep: 25.02%
Dem: 41.93%
Uaf: 31.66%

House District 10 (2) -- Boulder

D+32.68
Rep: 12.50%
Dem: 49.74%
Uaf: 35.91%

House District 11 (3*) -- Boulder

D+8.59
Rep: 28.83%
Dem: 35.08%
Uaf: 34.84%

*Despite the Democrat advantage in active voter registration and in district performance, the Republican candidate will likely make this a fairly close election, much closer than Boulder seats are used to being.

House District 12 (2) -- Boulder

D+16
Rep: 24.10%
Dem: 40.97%
Uaf: 33.77%

House District 13 (2) -- Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson

D+21.08
Rep: 21.87%
Dem: 43.68%
Uaf: 32.91%

House District 14 (6) -- El Paso

R+24.2
  • R. David Lucero (Libertarian)
  • Dan Nordberg (Republican)
  • Thomas O'Dell (American Constitution Party)
Rep: 55.32%
Dem: 15.08%
Uaf: 28.78%

House District 15 (6) -- El Paso

R+19.38
  • Michael Edstrom (American Constitution Party)
  • Larry Reedy (Libertarian)
  • Mark Waller (Republican)
Rep: 49.33%
Dem: 19.41%
Uaf: 30.17%

House District 16 (6) -- El Paso

R+15.31
Rep: 47.45%
Dem:  21.11%
Uaf: 30.28%

House District 17 (4*) -- El Paso

R+2.36
Rep: 29.59%
Dem: 34.58%
Uaf: 34.24%

*Because of the new district dynamics, I think it very likely this district shifts Parties and will be a Democrat pick-up.

House District 18 (3*) -- El Paso

D+6.04
  • Amy Fedde (American Constitution Party)
  • Jennifer George (Republican)
  • Pete Lee (Democrat)
  • Bob Melamede (Libertarian)
Rep: 31.81%
Dem:  32.03%
Uaf: 34.32%

*Despite better district numbers for Republicans and the most viable candidate in several election cycles, the performance of this district with Independents still leans too far Democrat for a Republican victory.

House District 19 (6) -- El Paso

R+27.85
Rep: 59.66%
Dem: 12.36%
Uaf: 12.36%

House District 20 (6) -- El Paso

R+16.21
  • Bob Gardner (Republican)
  • Michael Goldsborough (Democrat)
Rep: 49.60%
Dem: 20.37%
Uaf: 29.14%

House District 21 (6) -- El Paso

R+10.77
  • Laticia Burns (Libertarian)
  • Sean Halstead  (American Constitution Party)
  • Lois Landgraf (Republican)
Rep: 38.64%
Dem: 26.18%
Uaf: 34.03%

House District 22 (6) -- Jefferson

R+8.16
Rep: 41.84%
Dem: 25.61%
Uaf: 31.80%

House District 23 (2) -- Jefferson

D+6.98
Rep: 30.76%
Dem: 34.77%
Uaf: 33.22%

House District 24 (2) -- Jefferson

D+7.41
Rep: 29.88%
Dem: 34.69%
Uaf: 34.16%

House District 25 (6) -- Jefferson

R+6.13
Rep: 39.38%
Dem: 27.32%
Uaf: 32.36%

House District 26 (4*) -- Eagle, Routt

D+6.93
Rep: 30.27%
Dem: 29.16%
Uaf: 39.04%

*Unfortunately, likely a Democrat hold, but with the slight Republican edge in active voter registration, I'm willing to consider this one in play.

House District 27 (6*) -- Jefferson

R+4.85
Rep: 38.00%
Dem: 29.13%
Uaf: 31.99%

*While the incumbent Republican will still hold the seat, the district performance suggests it will be closer than the almost 9% spread in active registered voters would dictate it should be.

House District 28 (1*) -- Jefferson

D+6.05
Rep: 31.20%
Dem: 34.79%
Uaf: 33.01%

*Formerly a fairly strong Republican seat, the new district is likely to be a Democrat pick-up.

House District 29 (4*) -- Jefferson

D+4.97
Rep: 31.15%
Dem: 33.41%
Uaf: 34.33%

*Between the new district numbers and performance, this is a likely Democrat pick-up.

House District 30 (1*) -- Adams

D+4.57
Rep: 28.55%
Dem: 37.43%
Uaf: 32.84%

*A new house district, formerly Kevin Priola's district number, that will very likely be a Democrat pick-up.

House District 31 (2) -- Adams

D+5.23
Rep: 28.02%
Dem: 36.50%
Uaf: 34.52%

House District 32 (2) -- Adams

D+13.39
Rep: 20.55%
Dem: 46.75%
Uaf: 31.64%

House District 33 (4*) -- Boulder, Broomfield

D+4.99
Rep: 32.53%
Dem: 31.31%
Uaf: 35.20%

*Despite a minor Republican advantage in this district in active registered voters, the dynamics suggest a likely Democrat pick-up, especially with a well-known former State Rep. running for this district.

House District 34 (2) -- Adams

D+5.92
Rep: 28.56%
Dem: 36.51%
Uaf: 33.81%

House District 35 (3*) -- Adams

D+5.83
Rep: 29.53%
Dem: 36.70%
Uaf: 32.74%

*Despite the numbers disadvantage, there is a chance that this may swing Republican because the Republican candidate has name recognition from a previous run for office and is seriously pounding the pavement.

House District 36 (2) -- Arapahoe

D+6.09
  • Wes Long (Libertarian)
  • James Parker (Republican)
  • Su Ryden (Democrat)
Rep: 29.22%
Dem: 37.83%
Uaf: 31.92%

House District 37 (6*) -- Arapahoe

R+6.29
Rep: 40.96%
Dem: 27.79%
Uaf: 30.40%

*Despite the drastic active registered voter advantage for Republicans, the district performance will likely be closer than it should be in this district (still with a Republican hold).

House District 38 (6*) -- Arapahoe

R+5.89
Rep: 42.50%
Dem: 27.36%
Uaf: 29.32%

*Like HD37, while the Republican incumbent will win, the results will be closer than the cushion of Republican active registered voters would suggest.

House District 39 (6) -- Douglas, Teller

R+18.44
Rep: 51.41%
Dem: 18.69%
Uaf: 29.13%

House District 40 (1*) -- Arapahoe

D+5.33
Rep: 30.62%
Dem: 35.96%
Uaf: 32.31%

*Thanks to reapportionment, this district will be difficult for the incumbent to hold onto and will very likely be a Democrat pick-up.

House District 41 (2) -- Arapahoe

D+10.7
Rep: 26.52%
Dem: 41.37%
Uaf: 31.03%

House District 42 (2) -- Arapahoe

D+16.09
Rep: 18.56%
Dem: 48.10%
Uaf: 31.96%

House District 43 (6) -- Douglas

R+12.62
Rep: 46.91%
Dem: 23.19%
Uaf: 29.25%

House District 44 (6) -- Douglas

R+15.7
Rep: 47.03%
Dem: 20.71%
Uaf: 31.45%

House District 45 (6) -- Douglas

R+19.36
Rep: 51.64%
Dem: 17.88%
Uaf: 29.75%

House District 46 (2) -- Pueblo

D+9.14
Rep: 25.91%
Dem: 47.67%
Uaf: 25.65%

House District 47 (4*) -- Fremont, Otero, Pueblo

R+4.07
Rep: 34.51%
Dem: 38.07%
Uaf: 26.61%

*Once again, thanks to reapportionment, this formerly Republican seat (currently held by State Rep. Keith Swerdfeger, who was drawn out of the district), could be a Democrat pick-up--but with the district performance, Republicans might be able to retain control of this seat (despite a 3.56% Democrat advantage in active registered voters).

House District 48 (6) -- Weld

R+16.07
Rep: 45.93%
Dem: 20.94%
Uaf: 32.37%

House District 49 (6) -- Larimer, Weld

R+10.17
Rep: 42.33%
Dem: 22.73%
Uaf: 33.92%

House District 50 (4*) -- Weld

R+2.97
Rep: 30.21%
Dem: 31.03%
Uaf: 37.47%

*With a Republican advantage in performance, and less than 1% Democrat advantage in active registered voters, this race could go either way.

House District 51 (6) -- Larimer

R+9.34
Rep: 40.43%
Dem: 22.99%
Uaf: 35.51%

House District 52 (3*) -- Larimer

D+7.59
Rep: 31.14%
Dem: 30.88%
Uaf: 36.64%

*Active registered voters lean slightly Republican, but the district performance indicates a Democrat hold on this seat.

House District 53 (2) -- Larimer

D+11.48
Rep: 25.92%
Dem: 31.60%
Uaf: 40.68%

House District 54 (6*) -- Delta, Mesa

R+11.27
Rep: 49.77%
Dem: 18.79%
Uaf: 30.37%

*An interesting dynamic in this race could be the lack of a Democrat, and the "establishment" Republicans launching a full-scale assault on the Republican nominee.

House District 55 (6) -- Mesa

R+14.52
Rep: 45.01%
Dem: 22.75%
Uaf: 31.11%

House District 56 (7*) -- Adams, Arapahoe

R+11.73
Rep: 41.67%
Dem: 25.66%
Uaf: 31.95%

*Formerly the district number for State Rep. Millie Hamner, this new district will be a Republican pick-up.

House District 57 (6) -- Garfield, Moffat, Brio Blanco

R+11.13
Rep: 43.72%
Dem: 21.73%
Uaf: 33.43%

House District 58 (6) -- Dolores, Montezuma, Montrose, San Miguel

R+14.32
  • Don Coram (Republican)
  • Jeff Downs (Libertarian)
  • Tammy Theis (Democrat)
Rep: 46.03%
Dem: 23.76%
Uaf: 29.11%

House District 59 (5*) -- Archuleta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, La Plata, Ouray, San Juan

R+2.91
Rep: 37.19%
Dem: 30.11%
Uaf: 31.27%

*Based on active registered voters (a 7.08% spread), this district should be fairly safe for a Republican, but the district performance might indicate otherwise.

House District 60 (6) -- Chaffee, Custer, Fremont, Park

R+10.49
  • Pier Cohen (Democrat)
  • Bruce Waters (Libertarian)
  • Jim Wilson (Republican)
Rep: 45.21%
Dem: 23.31%
Uaf: 30.39%

House District 61 (2) -- Delta, Gunnison, Lake, Pitkin, Summit

D+6.38
Rep: 30.41%
Dem: 30.87%
Uaf: 37.51%

House District 62 (2) -- Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, Huerfano, Mineral, Pueblo, Rio Grande, Saguache

D+10.59
Rep: 27.88%
Dem: 49.55%
Uaf: 21.65%

House District 63 (6) -- Weld

R+13.17
Rep: 39.79%
Dem: 24.51%
Uaf: 34.62%

House District 64 (7*) -- Baca, Bent, Crowley, Elbert, Kiowa, Las Animas, Lincoln, Prowers, Washington

R+17.03
  • Tim Dore (Republican)
  • Nick Schneider (Libertarian)
Rep: 50.44%
Dem: 25.68%
Uaf: 23.27%

*New district that is solidly Republican and is a pick-up.

House District 65 (6) -- Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma

R+18.21
Rep: 19.38%
Dem: 53.93%
Uaf: 26.13%



District Attorney


Judicial District 1 -- Gilpin, Jefferson


Judicial District 2 -- Denver


Judicial District 3 -- Huerfano, Los Animas

  • Frank Ruybalid (Democrat)

Judicial District 4 -- El Paso, Teller

  • Dan May (Republican)

Judicial District 5 -- Clear Creek, Eagle, Lake, Summit


Judicial District 6 -- Archuleta, La Plata, San Juan

  • Todd Risberg (Democrat)

Judicial District 7 -- Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Montrose, Ouray, San Miguel

  • Dan Hotsenpiller (Democrat)

Judicial District 8 -- Jackson, Larimer


Judicial District 9 -- Garfield, Pitkin, Rio Blanco


Judicial District 10 -- Pueblo


Judicial District 11 -- Chaffee, Custer, Fremont, Park


Judicial District 12 -- Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, Mineral, Rio Grande, Saguache


Judicial District 13 -- Kit Carson, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma

  • Brittny Lewton (Republican)

Judicial District 14 -- Grand, Moffat, Routt


Judicial District 15 -- Baca, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Prowers

  • Jennifer Swanson (Republican)

Judicial District 16 -- Bent, Crowley, Otero


Judicial District 17 -- Adams, Broomfrield


Judicial District 18 -- Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert, Lincoln


Judicial District 19 -- Weld

  • Ken Buck (Republican)

Judicial District 20 -- Boulder

  • Stan Garnett (Democrat)

Judicial District 21 -- Mesa

  • Pete Hautzinger (Republican)

Judicial District 22 -- Dolores, Montezuma

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