07 November 2012

Editorial: The Aftermath

Or, perhaps better titled... "A Little 'I Told You So' and a Little 'You Were Right'".

After I put out my predictions on Colorado races (especially the Colorado State House), many people went nuts saying I was super pessimistic, only doomsday would bring those numbers, we were going to gain several seats in the House and win the Senate, etc.  Well, some of you were right about one thing... I was wrong on my numbers.  However, I think I've earned the right for a bit of a (maybe even a big) 'I told you so!' because my numbers about the Democrat sweep of the Colorado State House were low, not high.  In fact, of all the electoral prognostications I saw, no one else right-of-center predicted a net Democrat gain in the State House, let alone the near-total sweep that happened (I didn't look at things like Colorado Pols or other places like that, so I don't know what the left-of-center folks were saying).

So what happened?

One word.  REAPPORTIONMENT.

Two words.  Ryan Call.

Three words.  Republican 'Leadership' Vacuum.  (referring to the counties, since State Party is covered previously)

That's my election summary for Colorado.  The party of evil cannot be beaten by the party of stupid, and it's more stupid than usual here in Colorado.  Remedies?

  1. Run the so-called 'leadership' out of town on a rail.  February and March will be upon us before we know it, and we MUST clean our (GOP) own house before we worry about anything else.
  2. Once we have actual leadership, better candidates.  Not these simpering, moderate, big-government boo-hoo Boehner sissy-types, but people who actually believe in liberty and the GOP platform--and aren't afraid to talk about it, advocate effectively, and are actual competent candidates.
  3. We need a long-term strategy.  Living election cycle to election cycle, with a year and a half of down time between elections DOESN'T CUT IT.  At minimum, we need a 10 year strategy in place within the next 6-12 months.  We won't win everything overnight.  We have to be realistic.  But for crying out loud, we need to plan.  Failing to plan is planning to fail.



PRELIMINARY RESULTS

The results will not be official for a while longer, but I don't think (other than possible one race: SD19) that the results will drastically change between now and when the official results are released.  Not enough to change who wins, at any rate.  Below are the winners as of right now from the Secretary of State's results page (I'll add in percents later when they are official).  If they're in bold, I got that race right.  If they are in italics, I got that race wrong.  Not all counties have reported into it yet.


CU Regent
Pre-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans
Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
  • At-Large: Steve Ludwig (Democrat)
  • Congressional District 3: Glenn Gallegos (Republican)
  • Congressional District 5: Kyle Hybl (Republican)
  • Congressional District 7:  Irene Griego (Democrat)
3/4


State Board of Education
Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats

2/2

Congressional
Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 2 toss-ups (my bet is at least one, CD7, goes R)
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
*Quick note on the two toss-up: I never said Kevin Lundberg or Joe Coors would win, only that they could win (and I do have to admit surprise with the defeat of Coors by the numbers I'm seeing).  Under better leadership in this state, they very well may have won, but speculating doesn't get us anywhere.  Bottom line, while I'm surprised by the margin of defeat that Coors suffered, I'm not terribly surprised either district did what it did.  I'm giving myself half credit for each of these, though, to be fair.

6/7


State Senate
Pre-Election Make-up: 20 Democrats, 15 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 16 Democrats, 15 Republicans, 4 toss-ups (my guess is it goes 2 and 2 for Republicans and Democrats)
Post-Election Make-up: 20 Democrats, 15 Republicans
*Okay, on this one, I was wrong.  I actually thought Lang Sais would win outside the margin of an automatic recount.  While this race is within the margin of automatic recount now (I believe 332 votes are separating them), I'm not sure that Lang can make up that many votes.

**Partial credit to me on this one for leaving it a toss-up and not doing with it what I did with SD19, because I thought about it originally.  I am a little surprised that Newell won, to be honest, but not totally shocked.

***There are two counties yet to complete reporting in this race according to the SOS site, and about 1,000 votes separating Crowder and his opponent, so it may tighten, but I don't think he'll end up losing.

18.5/20


State House
Pre-Election Make-up: 33 Republicans, 32 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 30 Democrats, 28 Republicans, 7 toss-up (my very unscientific prediction is all but 1 or 2 go Democrat based on district performance and/or active voter registration numbers, and what I know about the district and candidates)
Post-Election Make-up: 37 Democrats, 28 Republicans
*Not giving myself any credit for it, but I was right that Ellyn Hilliard did have the largest number of votes for a Republican in Boulder State House races.  Just sayin'.

**Partial credit for this one since I gave no clear prediction.

***My bad for not making this one a toss-up, I was truly surprised that J. Paul Brown lost that district with the numbers I saw.

****My only surprise in this race was Kathleen Curry not getting more votes than she did.

I'm not really surprised by any of this (other than J. Paul Brown losing, that one did catch me off guard), but I am somewhat surprised by the margins I'm seeing.  For example, I expected Robert Ramirez to lose, but not by near 10%.  Just goes to show the power of reapportionment.

63.5/65

FINAL RESULTS

Bottom line, reapportionment really shanked us.  I was overly-optimistic about the State Senate, and under-pessimistic about the State House.  Finally tally?

Out of 94 races in which I predicted an outcome, I only got 3 out and out wrong; 4 races I characterized as toss-ups (either not making a clear predictions one way or another, or which I called as "leans" the wrong way (but still kept it as a toss-up).  That equals a 96.81% accuracy rate.  Not too bad for relying solely on the three things I have always found to be the most reliable indicators in politics:
  1. Active Registered Voters,
  2. Past District Performance, and
  3. Good ol' gut instinct (which is largely based on knowing many of the districts and candidates).
No polls, no "how much money was raised", no gimmicks.  Just saying, folks.  Just saying.

Oh, and I more than once predicted Obama would win Colorado.  In fact, that was the best possible thing (well, actually, the best possible thing would have been Obama winning Colorado but losing nationally), because that is a slap in the face to the Ryan Calls and Eli Bremers and other GOP hacks of the world.  Guys, you didn't win it.  You and your ilk have now fudged up what should have been two wave Republican years (2010 and 2012), and you still haven't gotten it through your back-room, smoke-filled brains that we can't fight the party of evil with your brand of stupidity and lack of strategic vision.  

Maybe the rest of the Colorado GOP will now get the hint to make that kind of Republican 'leadership' extinct.  This isn't about radically changing the Party, this is about using common sense, a solid platform actually adhered to by candidates, and basic political strategy to actually... you know... win elections.  Liberty is a winning message, guys.  Get on the bandwagon or get off at the next stop (heck, we might even throw you off before we get to the next stop depending on how you respond to this repudiation of your inability to "make Colorado red again").
Posted by at 2 comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)