Opinion: Myths and Reality about the Colorado Recall Elections

There has been a lot of misinformation promulgated by far too many Establishment Republicans (and parroted by sheeple who haven't bothered to do their research) in this recall election.  We already have to fight Democrats--it's even more frustrating we have to keep fighting the false statements on our own side as well.  Here are several of those myths--debunked.

MYTH #1: "Owen Hill lost Senate District 11 in 2010 by 360 votes because of the Libertarian; therefore without a Libertarian in the race we are guaranteed a victory!"

Facts:

1. This is NOT the same district as it was in 2010.  In 2010, Senate District 11 was a fairly evenly matched district that had been held by a Republican until Senator Morse's first win in 2006.  On 1 November 2010, the registration numbers looked drastically different than they do as of the latest numbers from the Secretary of State (1 August 2013).  See the first set of charts below for a comparison.  Please pay attention to the Active Voters % --  that is the most telling voter registration statistic, especially now because there will be no mail ballots this election.  Yes, SD11 picked up total Republican voters--but you'll notice they also picked up total voters overall, and Senate District 11 now has one of the largest contingents of Unaffiliated voters in the state.
2. Not only have the voter registration numbers changed, the district performance numbers have changed, too.  Senate District 11 went from "leans Democrat" in 2010 (which, in my estimation, was a significant understatement based on the numbers) to pretty solidly Democrat now because of reapportionment.  The district performance went from D+1 in 2010 to D+6 in 2013.  See the second set of charts below for the reapportionment district average performance (for statewide races), and keep this in mind: 2010 was a wave Republican year, so that is likely a high-water mark for Republican performance.  It is unlikely, unless we see similar circumstances once again, to ever see that kind of Republican performance again until at least reapportionment in 2021.  And, you'll notice, even in that wave Republican year, both districts' reapportionment numbers underperformed the state GOP average and significantly outperformed the state Democrat average.

REALITY: Basing any assessment of Senate District 11's performance now, in 2013, on the old district's numbers doesn't prove any point other than that you are ignorant of the reapportionment process and it's ramifications.  They simply aren't comparable as they are not the same district.

Voter Registration Charts for Senate District 3:

As of 1 November 2010:

	Active Voters	Active %	Inactive Voters	Total	Total %
Democrat	32,483	49.27%	11,079	43,562	46.52%
Republican	16,345	24.79%	5,568	21,913	23.4%
Unaffiliated	16,790	25.47%	10,907	27,697	29.58%
Total	65,930		27,706	93,636

As of 1 August 2013:

	Active Voters	Active %	Inactive Voters	Total	Total %
Democrat	38,327	46.83%	5,685	44,012	45.36%
Republican	19,081	23.31%	3,202	22,283	22.97%
Unaffiliated	23,798	29.08%	6,168	29,966	30.88%
Total	81,846		15,184	97,030

Voter Registration Charts for Senate District 11:

As of 1 November 2010:

	Active Voters	Active %	Inactive Voters	Total	Total %
Democrat	16,186	33.99%	5,968	22,154	33%
Republican	15,160	31.83%	3,798	18,958	28.24%
Unaffiliated	15,845	33.27%	9,502	25,347	37.76%
Total	47,623		19,502	67,125

As of 1 August 2013:

	Active Voters	Active %	Inactive Voters	Total	Total %
Democrat	23,257	33.7%	4,524	27,781	33.29%
Republican	18,097	26.22%	2,902	20,999	25.17%
Unaffiliated	26,447	38.32%	6,752	33,199	39.79%
Total	69,016		14,427	83,443

Reapportionment District Performance Averages vs. State Averages in 2010 and 2012:

	Reapportionment Average	2010 Statewide Average	2012 Statewide Average	Difference 2010	Difference 2012
SD3 DEM	58.22%	44.39%	47.15%	+13.83	+11.07
SD3 REP	40.2%	52.58%	46.76%	-12.38	-6.56
SD11 DEM	53.1%	44.39%	47.15%	+8.71	+5.95
SD11 REP	44.5%	52.58%	46.76%	-8.08	-2.26

MYTH #2: "If a Republican wins now, we only have to win one seat in 2014 to have the majority in the State Senate!"

Facts:

1. While technically true if you do the math, this makes the (I think bad) assumption that we hold those two seats in 2014.
2. What is far more likely is that we lose Senate Districts 3 and 11, but gain Senate Districts 5, 16, and at least one of 20, 22, or 24.  Any three of those five and we have the majority.  All five of those seats have a much better chance of a Republican winning than either Senate District 3 or 11.  I'll discuss those districts more in-depth in a later post.

REALITY: Even if a Republican takes these two districts in 2013, there is no guarantee the seats are retained, and I think there's a great likelihood they will be lost in the 2014 General Election.

MYTH #3: "Those meddling Libertarians!  Their lawsuit to make the State of Colorado follow their own Constitution will derail the recall election!"

Facts:

1. Most of the arguments about why this lawsuit was a good thing have already been laid out: in my post earlier on the subject, by this great analysis, and in an excellent article today from Media Trackers.  Please read those so I don't have to repeat myself or redo the work of others who have summed it up so well.  The key takeaway, if you don't want to spend the time reading them, is that this lawsuit not just about ballot access, but just as much about eliminating mail-in ballots from this election
2. Lazy, low-information voters who otherwise wouldn't get off their duffs and vote can't sit in the convenience of their homes and not having mail-in ballots gives the recall proponents a significant advantage.  Incumbents have a much easier time winning with low-information voters.
3. Without mail-in ballots, it is much harder to cheat in elections.  Worse than uninformed voters, mail=in ballots lend themselves to fraud, such as voters being coerced or otherwise threatened by union thugs, or having their ballots filled out for them.  

What still amazes me is that Republicans are upset about this lawsuit.  In fact, Republican Party Chairman Ryan Call put out a press release parroting the same talking points as John Morse!  That is all shades of screwed up, and should be a wake up call to Republicans everywhere.

REALITY: This is proof positive that Republican apparatchiks no longer care for the Constitution, but push whatever they think will create "victory" (meaning money in their pockets) for them.  No wonder they have been consistently losing in this state since 2004.  Moreover, surprise, surprise--it not only didn't "derail the recall", it actually gave the recall a fighting chance by removing mail-in ballots from the equation.  How about them apples?

MYTH #4: "Those meddling Libertarians!  So they didn't derail the recall, but they did disenfranchise military voters!"

Facts:

1. You know what... I'll just let Secretary of State Scott Gessler do the talking for me here.  You can find his whole release at this link.

"As someone who served overseas in the Army and consequently missed an election myself, I’m particularly concerned about our military and overseas voters who want to cast ballots. Currently, El Paso County has 645 and Pueblo has 287.

Colorado is ready to serve them.

Last year I deployed a statewide electronic mail ballot delivery system for military and overseas voters. It worked extremely well, contributing to a 65% jump in turnout, even while most states saw a drop.

That system is already at work in the recall elections. The large majority of our military and overseas voters have already signed up for electronic ballot delivery. They have already received ballots. If more candidates qualify, we will work with El Paso and Pueblo to get them new ballots quickly, through electronic ballots, fax, and expedited mail. Forward deployed service members can even radio their votes to their commanders, and we can accept those ballots eight days after the election. Finally, we’ll take additional steps, if necessary." (emphasis added)

REALITY: As Secretary Gessler points out, there are other, better ways of reaching military voters--with electronic ballots (something for which he won an award for in 2012).  No one is disenfranchised, and, in fact, it is now more likely these service men and women will have their vote count, since there was no guarantee they would recieve their mail ballots in time, even though they were sent 30 days in advance (already a violation of UOCAVA standards).  You can also look at the comments on Clear The Bench Colorado's coverage for more on military voting.

MYTH #5: "Those meddling Libertarians!  Maybe they didn't derail the recall or disenfranchise military voters, but with a Libertarian on the ballot, they'll split the vote and ensure Morse stays in office!"

Facts:

1. As of right now, no Democrat has declared in Senate District 11, and no Libertarian has declared in Senate District 3.
2. The recall vote is a two part process: first, a yes or no vote on the recall, and then if yes, a vote on the replacement candidate.

REALITY: If there is no Democrat on the ballot in SD11, it would be impossible to "split the vote".  In fact, the more peole you can turn out to vote "yes" on the recall, the greater the likelihood of success.  

Let me repeat that, since it is the most commonly promulgated lie I've heard this entire recall election process: a Libertarian on the ballot not only doesn't split the vote, it actually makes it more likely that Morse gets recalled.

Update: typo in one of my charts fixed--thanks to Kevin J. for the catch!

Opinion: The Libertarian Party, a lawsuit, and the Liberty Movement's "Mike Rosens"

Earlier this week, the Libertarian Party in Colorado (among other parties) sued the Secretary of State over Constitutional violations regarding the recall elections in State Senate Districts 3 and 11.

It is stunning to me that so many “liberty” friends of mine immediately saw “Libertarian Party” and went all Mike Rosen on me.  Are you kidding?  You’re really going to blame Libertarians for wanting to uphold the rule of law, the Constitution, and (most importantly) ensuring the integrity of one of the most important elections to ever happen in Colorado simply because it is the Libertarian Party?  Wow.  I would put money on it that if a Republican had filed this suit, the response would be drastically different.

Let me lay out why this is vitally important.  The ramifications of this suit go way beyond the recall election from what I’ve seen.  Those who are thinking only of the recall election have fallen victim to the GOP Establishment syndrome of tunnel vision focus on just the election directly in front of you.

This past legislative session, Democrats passed HB13-1303.  This is a comprehensive “reform” of election law that has become known as the “same day voter registration bill”—but it goes far beyond just same day registration.

Additionally, this bill (the Senate sponsor was none other than Sen. Angela Giron) changed the playing field for recall elections… WHILE THE SPONSOR WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF A RECALL ELECTION.  Why is there not more outrage over this fact?

If HB13-1303 is fully implemented, no liberty-minded person will win statewide elected office in the near, and probably distant, future.  We have a real opportunity to stop it in its tracks now with the suit, something only the Libertarian Party had the balls to put forth.  No Republican had the spine for it, and for that reason alone, perhaps it’s good that we keep losing.  We certainly deserve to keep losing if that is the case.

We will find out this coming Monday, 12 August, if this suit is successful.  If it is, and this election becomes a polling-place only election, we have a great opportunity to see the effects of HB13-1303 up close and in detail.  We will have the ability to truly monitor this election and document the inevitable fraud that will occur.  If we do not do it now, we must wait until November 2014 to do this (as November 2013 will be a mail ballot only election) and the Democrats will be able to overwhelm poll watchers and election judges with massive fraud (remember 2012?).

Here’s what is at stake in November 2014:

•      The Governor’s Mansion
•      Secretary of State (anyone remember George Soros’ pet project to control “who counts the votes?”)
•      Attorney General (who will defend our rights and laws?)
•      Treasurer (who will hold the PERA Board accountable?)
•      U.S. Senate (what should be a winnable seat)
•      Congressional District 6, the most competitive Congressional District in the country
•      Control of the Colorado State Senate

Now, granted, due to other factors, I’m unconvinced that we win (or in the case of CD6, retain) any of these but the last one, but I would be willing to wager plenty that there is absolutely no way to win if we don’t derail HB13-1303 RIGHT NOW.

And yes, there certainly is no guarantee we win this recall at a polling-place only election.  But if those mail ballots go out, there is a much greater chance for fraud, and a much greater chance we lose.  The day those mail ballots are received is the day this election will be determined.  Lazy, uninformed voters are much more likely to vote in the “convenience” of their home (or worse, let someone else vote for them) than if they are required to show up at a polling place.  That gives us a distinct advantage that would take a lot of busing in from elsewhere and commission of more open—and detectable—voter fraud to overcome.

Let’s be honest—the Democrats aren’t stupid.  They likely already knew about this Constitutional conflict, and have this as their “Plan B” if (when) the recall election doesn’t goes their way.  This card can no longer be played by the Democrat once it has been ruled on by a court.

How do we, as liberty-loving political junkies, lose in any way for being seen to stand up for the Constitution, the rule of law, fair ballot access for all, and election integrity?  I guess some of you so called liberty-lovers don’t really believe in liberty for all if you oppose this then, do you?  It’s incredibly short-sighted.  Just like the GOP has “OGRE”s, it seems the liberty movement has “Mike Rosens”.  And that is, perhaps, the most disappointing thing of all.

Read the Press Release from the Libertarian Party here.  Read analysis of this case here.  Comments on the Clear the Bench Colorado article discuss the ramifications of this on military voters.  A simple Google search brings up a number of news articles as well.