09 November 2016

2016 Election Aftermath (short post)

...is it too early to say "I told you so" again?

Quick debrief, with more later:

Federal races: 8/8 called, 1 toss-up (no call)
CU Regent: 2/2 called, 1 toss-up (leans D, wrong)
Board of Ed: 3/3 called
State Senate: 16/17 called, 1 toss-up (leans R, right)
State House: 65/65 called

In other words, 99% right.

And bonus:
Judicial Districts: 21/22 called

If you factor these in, it's a paltry 98%.  Bugger.

For those of you looking at what I got wrong, that was SD25, JD9, and CU Regent at-large (although that was called a toss-up, so it's not factoring into the calculation).

The amendments, sadly, went about as I expected.

Once again, Colorado loses big time.  And once again, I'm hardly surprised by this.

05 November 2016

2016 Predictions

Unfortunately, due to mommying and starting a new job, I wasn't able to get this out when I had hoped, nor have as much detail together as I would have liked.  However, here is a quick (and very late) update to the Forecast.  Forecast predictions hold unless noted in the predictions column (so, for example, all Congressional races are as forecasted except CD6).


Type
Office
Forecast
Prediction
Federal
Congressional
1 + 2 +7 are D holds
4 + 5 are R holds
3 is leans R
6 is toss-up/leans slightly D
6 is toss-up/no call
Federal
President
Toss-up/leans D
Leans D
Federal
US Senate
Toss-up/leans D
Leans D
Statewide
CU Regent
At-Large: Toss-up/leans D
1 = D hold
4 is R hold
No change
Statewide
Board of Ed
3 + 5 + 6 are R holds
No change
Legislature
State Senate
14 + 17 + 18 + 21 + 25 + 28 +29 + 31 + 33 are D holds
4 + 8 + 10 + 12 + 23 + 27 are R holds
19 + 26 + 35 are toss-up/leans D
19 is D Pick-up
26 is D hold
35 is toss-up/leans R
Legislature
State House
1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 +12 + 13 + 18 + 23 + 24 + 26 + 28 +31 + 32 + 33 + 34 + 35 + 36 + 40 + 41 + 42 + 46 + 50 + 52 + 53 + 61 + 62 are D holds
17 + 30 are D pick-ups
14 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 20 + 21 + 22 + 25 + 27 + 37 + 38 + 39 + 43 + 44 + 45 + 47 + 48 + 49 + 51 + 54 + 55 + 56 + 57 + 58 + 60 + 63 + 64 + 65 are R holds
29 + 59 are toss-ups/leans D
29 is D hold
59 is D pick-up
Judicial District
District Attorney
n/a
2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 9 + 10 + 12 + 17 + 20 are D holds
1 + 4 + 8 + 11 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 18 +19 +21 +22 are R holds