...is it too early to say "I told you so" again?
Quick debrief, with more later:
Federal races: 8/8 called, 1 toss-up (no call)
CU Regent: 2/2 called, 1 toss-up (leans D, wrong)
Board of Ed: 3/3 called
State Senate: 16/17 called, 1 toss-up (leans R, right)
State House: 65/65 called
In other words, 99% right.
And bonus:
Judicial Districts: 21/22 called
If you factor these in, it's a paltry 98%. Bugger.
For those of you looking at what I got wrong, that was SD25, JD9, and CU Regent at-large (although that was called a toss-up, so it's not factoring into the calculation).
The amendments, sadly, went about as I expected.
Once again, Colorado loses big time. And once again, I'm hardly surprised by this.
09 November 2016
05 November 2016
2016 Predictions
Unfortunately, due to mommying and starting a new job, I wasn't able to get this out when I had hoped, nor have as much detail together as I would have liked. However, here is a quick (and very late) update to the Forecast. Forecast predictions hold unless noted in the predictions column (so, for example, all Congressional races are as forecasted except CD6).
Type
|
Office
|
Forecast
|
Prediction
|
Federal
|
Congressional
|
1 + 2 +7 are D holds
4 + 5 are R holds
3 is leans R
6 is toss-up/leans slightly D
|
6 is toss-up/no call
|
Federal
|
President
|
Toss-up/leans D
|
Leans D
|
Federal
|
US Senate
|
Toss-up/leans D
|
Leans D
|
Statewide
|
CU Regent
|
At-Large: Toss-up/leans D
1 = D hold
4 is R hold
|
No change
|
Statewide
|
Board of Ed
|
3 + 5 + 6 are R holds
|
No change
|
Legislature
|
State Senate
|
14 + 17 + 18 + 21 + 25 + 28 +29 + 31 + 33 are D holds
4 + 8 + 10 + 12 + 23 + 27 are R holds
19 + 26 + 35 are toss-up/leans D
|
19 is D Pick-up
26 is D hold
35 is toss-up/leans R
|
Legislature
|
State House
|
1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 +12 + 13 + 18 + 23 + 24 + 26 + 28 +31 + 32 + 33 + 34 + 35 + 36 + 40 + 41 + 42 + 46 + 50 + 52 + 53 + 61 + 62 are D holds
17 + 30 are D pick-ups
14 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 20 + 21 + 22 + 25 + 27 + 37 + 38 + 39 + 43 + 44 + 45 + 47 + 48 + 49 + 51 + 54 + 55 + 56 + 57 + 58 + 60 + 63 + 64 + 65 are R holds
29 + 59 are toss-ups/leans D
|
29 is D hold
59 is D pick-up
|
Judicial District
|
District Attorney
|
n/a
|
2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 9 + 10 + 12 + 17 + 20 are D holds
1 + 4 + 8 + 11 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 18 +19 +21 +22 are R holds
|
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