2016 Election Aftermath (short post)

...is it too early to say "I told you so" again?

Quick debrief, with more later:

Federal races: 8/8 called, 1 toss-up (no call)
CU Regent: 2/2 called, 1 toss-up (leans D, wrong)
Board of Ed: 3/3 called
State Senate: 16/17 called, 1 toss-up (leans R, right)
State House: 65/65 called

In other words, 99% right.

And bonus:
Judicial Districts: 21/22 called

If you factor these in, it's a paltry 98%.  Bugger.

For those of you looking at what I got wrong, that was SD25, JD9, and CU Regent at-large (although that was called a toss-up, so it's not factoring into the calculation).

The amendments, sadly, went about as I expected.

Once again, Colorado loses big time.  And once again, I'm hardly surprised by this.

2016 Predictions

Unfortunately, due to mommying and starting a new job, I wasn't able to get this out when I had hoped, nor have as much detail together as I would have liked.  However, here is a quick (and very late) update to the Forecast.  Forecast predictions hold unless noted in the predictions column (so, for example, all Congressional races are as forecasted except CD6).

Type	Office	Forecast	Prediction
Federal	Congressional	1 + 2 +7 are D holds 4 + 5 are R holds 3 is leans R 6 is toss-up/leans slightly D	6 is toss-up/no call
Federal	President	Toss-up/leans D	Leans D
Federal	US Senate	Toss-up/leans D	Leans D
Statewide	CU Regent	At-Large: Toss-up/leans D 1 = D hold 4 is R hold	No change
Statewide	Board of Ed	3 + 5 + 6 are R holds	No change
Legislature	State Senate	14 + 17 + 18 + 21 + 25 + 28 +29 + 31 + 33 are D holds 4 + 8 + 10 + 12 + 23 + 27 are R holds 19 + 26 + 35 are toss-up/leans D	19 is D Pick-up 26 is D hold 35 is toss-up/leans R
Legislature	State House	1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 +12 + 13 + 18 + 23 + 24 + 26 + 28 +31 + 32 + 33 + 34 + 35 + 36 + 40 + 41 + 42 + 46 + 50 + 52 + 53 + 61 + 62 are D holds 17 + 30 are D pick-ups 14 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 20 + 21 + 22 + 25 + 27 + 37 + 38 + 39 + 43 + 44 + 45 + 47 + 48 + 49 + 51 + 54 + 55 + 56 + 57 + 58 + 60 + 63 + 64 + 65 are R holds 29 + 59 are toss-ups/leans D	29 is D hold 59 is D pick-up
Judicial District	District Attorney	n/a	2 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 9 + 10 + 12 + 17 + 20 are D holds 1 + 4 + 8 + 11 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 18 +19 +21 +22 are R holds

By the Numbers: a new series

It seems almost everyone in politics wants to know what the latest poll says, but elections are not determined by polls.  In point of fact, I find polls to be largely irrelevant to the outcome of an election.  If you want polls, you’re in the wrong place. Most races I’m discussing don’t have polling data, and those that do are easily accessible via Google if you so desire.

This series is a look at some of the numbers that are part of the 2014 election in Colorado, from County-Wide to Federal Races. Some are just interesting statistics that I have found, others are good measures of how races will likely turn out in November.

This is an 8 part series, with new charts and graphs every Monday and Thursday for two and a half weeks. The Thursday and Monday following the last chart post will include some analysis, and the final Thursday in the series will have my 2014 election predictions.

Sometime during this series as well, I'll have an updated methodology post, discussing lessons learned in the 2012 predictions and how I think 2014 will be even better.  Also, look for the 2014 General Election Right Republicans Initiative post.  Those are the candidates I like and think you should support, not necessarily ones I think will win (although sometimes they will).

Check back frequently for updates!

Schedule for BTN Series Posts

• Monday September 8 – County-wide Races
• Thursday September 11 – Federal Races
• Monday September 15 – State House Races
• Thursday September 18 – State Senate Races
• Monday September 22 – Statewide Races
• Thursday September 25 – Federal and Statewide Analysis
• Monday September 29 – State Legislative Analysis
• Thursday October 2 – 2014 Election Predictions

The 'Right' Republicans Initiative (Primary 2014)

Check out my latest page, as part of the 'Right' Republicans Initiative for the 2014 Primary!  Here you will find analysis of each contest race: Statewide, Congressional, and Legislative.  There are three county races included as well.  Most include a recommendation--some I don't know enough about either the people or the race to make a solid endorsement one way or the other.

Here's a quick summary if you don't want to read all the commentary:

Governor: Tom Tancredo
Congressional District 1: no recommendation
Congressional District 3: David Cox
State Board of Education, Congressional District 3: Barbara Ann Smith
Congressional District 4: Scott Renfroe
Congressional District 5: Doug Lamborn
Senate District 19: Laura Woods
Senate District 22: Mario Nicolais
House District 15: no recommendation
House District 20: no recommendation
House District 22: Justin Everett
House District 26: Chuck McConnell
House District 37: no recommendation
House District 46: Brian Mater
House District 55: Dan Thurlow
House District 63: Lori Saine
Adams County Sheriff: Mike McIntosh
Jefferson County Sheriff: Jim Shires
Mesa County Sheriff: John Pennington

Please join in the conversation and comment on the post--agree or disagree (especially if I missed a race you think should be mentioned!).  Sharing is also appreciated.