Showing posts with label party of evil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label party of evil. Show all posts

08 July 2013

Parts 2 and 3: Political Parties and election tools

I started this post back after the 2012 election, and worked on it again some more last March.  It fits well into what I wanted as parts 2 and 3 of my series, and I didn't feel like I could chop it up.  So here it is.

I've been in politics far too long for my age.  If you'd like to read about how I got here, check out the "About Me" page.  The short of it is this: my mom has said time and again that she knew I'd be in politics since I was very young.  I was lucky enough to be homeschooled so my education could be geared towards that end.  I volunteered for the Republican Party for the first time in 1998, as a 9 year old, and it's been all downhill since.  I spent my high school years as a volunteer at the Colorado State Capitol.  I've volunteer far too many hours doing many things, particularly walking more precincts than my feet care to remember for more candidates than I could list.  And, as if that wasn't bad enough, I got into the management and consulting side of politics.  In other words, over the past 15 years, I've done more in politics than most people do in their entire lives.

Politics is frustrating, annoying, disheartening, disappointing, and down-right obnoxious most of the time, but somehow the masochist in me keeps coming back for more.  It's made me incredibly jaded, which is a sad thing to say for a 24-year-old, but it's true.  I'm a pessimist by nature, and have become increasingly cynical, which doesn't help much.  It does help me, however, to be much more realistic than the starry-eyed folks I often come across in politics on every side of the political spectrum--those kinds of folks annoy me more than anyone else in politics.

I've always been a Republican.  My parents were always Republicans.  My great-grandmother's grandfather was a Republican President of the United States (Benjamin Harrison).  This Party runs through my blood, very literally.  I haven't always been the "type" of Republican I am today, that's been quite a journey in and of itself, but this Party has always been my home.  Politics in general, and the GOP in specific, have also allowed me to meet most of my dearest friends... and my husband.  And, while I have yet to find someone I agree with 100%, I've found many allies and like-minded individuals along the way, so it isn't all bad.  I've had victories and losses, and learned much more by doing than I ever would have in a classroom.  Politics, strategy, and sometimes even my political philosophy, is an ever-evolving beast (the latter often because I've come to a better understanding of an issue rather than my mind actually changing about it, though)--but it's always been based on one thing for me: core principles.

Limited, Constitutional government.  
Free markets.  
The rule of law.  
Personal responsibility.  
NO EXCEPTIONS.

If I can agree with you on those issues, we can be political allies.  If I can't agree with you on them, we might still be able to be friends, but I don't compromise on those issues--and that hasn't ever changed, nor do I see that as being likely to happen in the future.  I believe there is, theoretically, room in the Republican Party for people who disagree on a whole slew of issues, so long as they can agree on what makes us all Republicans.

Except...

That no longer seems to be the case.  Those in power in the Republican Party keep pushing us closer and closer to the "middle"--or more specifically, closer and closer towards big government--and many have become out and out Progressives.  That is simply not acceptable.  We haven't had a truly limited government Presidential nominee in my lifetime.  Even Reagan, the paragon of "conservativism," wasn't totally limited government.

I'm all about a big tent, but without a foundation, that tent will just flap around in the wind.  And we wonder why we continue to lose in Colorado--something we've been doing badly since 2004.  It's not the message, it's how we message it.  It's not needing to catch up with the Democrats and their strategy, technology, etc. (we're 10 years behind them on that as it is, and yet we still use 30+ year-old campaign strategies), it's needing to surpass them.  It's not that we should move more to the "middle", it's that we should rebuild the trust in our brand that has been so thoroughly tarnish, people are leaving the Republican Party in droves--not because it isn't center enough, but because it isn't limited government enough.

At this point, I'm fairly sure my opinion of what's going on (and has gone on) in Colorado is no big secret.  Nor is it a big secret that the "elite" in power and I don't get along at all.  I can't imagine why, since I like winning and they seem to like losing... over and over and over and over...

And that's just it--the bottom line.  They keep losing.  Some of us on the ground--the ones they despise--have started winning.  We beat their "moderate" candidates in primaries.  We have been, slowly but surely, taking over spots of leadership in the Party.  But they don't want us in the Party.  Many have told us as much.  Sure, they try to look welcoming and preach far and wide about being so open to everyone, but anyone in the Republican Party who is not in lock-step with the Karl Rove types knows just how "welcoming" they are--and what they do to you if you don't agree with them.  Case in point.

It is beyond my ability to comprehend that those at the top still haven't figured out why they are losing, either.  Could it possibly be that they keep doing the same thing over and over?  That people keep leaving the Party as it moves more and more towards big government?  That their candidates suck?  They truly can't be that stupid... can they?  Worse yet, some people are so blinded by "power" and "access" that they continue to elect these buffoons to "lead" us into another electoral disaster--which makes them equally culpable in those future losses.

We can't afford that anymore.  By we, I mean WE THE PEOPLE.  Parties are simply tools.  There are many tools in the political arsenal.  I am, by no means, under any illusions that any third party is a viable option right now--let's be honest, the numbers just aren't there.  But I'm also tired of being taken for granted, kicked in the teeth, and ignored by a Party that is supposed to represent ME.

I haven't left the Republican Party (yet), but the Republican Party has left me--and I'm not the only one they've left, either.

I've been saying for quite some time that the results of 2012 would determine my affiliation in some form or another with the Colorado Republican Party.  The State Party Chairman's election back in March was an extension of that, and just proved once again that the Republican Party, especially in Colorado, is not only the Party of Stupid, but the Party of Insanity (per Einstein's definition).

While I make up my mind about future Party affiliation (the new deadline being 2014, proving once again I'm just a sucker for punishment), let me be perfectly clear about one thing: the GOP does not have my "loyalty".  Party does not trump principle.  My vote must be earned, and trust must be rebuilt.  Right now, the Republican Party is nothing more than a tool to elect limited government candidates when we can get them through the process.  It could be much more.  It should be much more.  But it won't be anything but that until there is a paradigm shift in leadership and attitude.

Everyone in the Colorado State Republican Party leadership is part of the problem, and the majority of the State Central Committee who put those people (two of the three back there, one is new) in power are entirely culpable for the results of the 2014 election--for every single loss we suffer.

Any win a Republican in Colorado might have will be entirely in spite of the Party, not because of it.  We can't take a losing strategy, dress it up in lace and pink bows, and expect it to be anything other than a hideous monstrosity that will also continue to drum up more of the same--sustained losses in this state.  I've seen absolutely no indication that this Party, under the leadership of a loser, Ryan Call, will go in any other direction than continued losses across the board.

We have other tools in our arsenal to advance liberty and limited government ideals besides just the Republican Party.  We need to start making better use of those, because continuing to rely on the Colorado Republican Party is naïve at absolute best, and, as far as I'm concerned, just plain stupid and insane.  The Party can't help us anymore, it's simply one of the many tools (and essentially only there now for ballot access).

07 November 2012

Editorial: The Aftermath

Or, perhaps better titled... "A Little 'I Told You So' and a Little 'You Were Right'".

After I put out my predictions on Colorado races (especially the Colorado State House), many people went nuts saying I was super pessimistic, only doomsday would bring those numbers, we were going to gain several seats in the House and win the Senate, etc.  Well, some of you were right about one thing... I was wrong on my numbers.  However, I think I've earned the right for a bit of a (maybe even a big) 'I told you so!' because my numbers about the Democrat sweep of the Colorado State House were low, not high.  In fact, of all the electoral prognostications I saw, no one else right-of-center predicted a net Democrat gain in the State House, let alone the near-total sweep that happened (I didn't look at things like Colorado Pols or other places like that, so I don't know what the left-of-center folks were saying).

So what happened?

One word.  REAPPORTIONMENT.

Two words.  Ryan Call.

Three words.  Republican 'Leadership' Vacuum.  (referring to the counties, since State Party is covered previously)

That's my election summary for Colorado.  The party of evil cannot be beaten by the party of stupid, and it's more stupid than usual here in Colorado.  Remedies?

  1. Run the so-called 'leadership' out of town on a rail.  February and March will be upon us before we know it, and we MUST clean our (GOP) own house before we worry about anything else.
  2. Once we have actual leadership, better candidates.  Not these simpering, moderate, big-government boo-hoo Boehner sissy-types, but people who actually believe in liberty and the GOP platform--and aren't afraid to talk about it, advocate effectively, and are actual competent candidates.
  3. We need a long-term strategy.  Living election cycle to election cycle, with a year and a half of down time between elections DOESN'T CUT IT.  At minimum, we need a 10 year strategy in place within the next 6-12 months.  We won't win everything overnight.  We have to be realistic.  But for crying out loud, we need to plan.  Failing to plan is planning to fail.



PRELIMINARY RESULTS

The results will not be official for a while longer, but I don't think (other than possible one race: SD19) that the results will drastically change between now and when the official results are released.  Not enough to change who wins, at any rate.  Below are the winners as of right now from the Secretary of State's results page (I'll add in percents later when they are official).  If they're in bold, I got that race right.  If they are in italics, I got that race wrong.  Not all counties have reported into it yet.


CU Regent
Pre-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans
Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
  • At-Large: Steve Ludwig (Democrat)
  • Congressional District 3: Glenn Gallegos (Republican)
  • Congressional District 5: Kyle Hybl (Republican)
  • Congressional District 7:  Irene Griego (Democrat)
3/4


State Board of Education
Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats

2/2

Congressional
Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 2 toss-ups (my bet is at least one, CD7, goes R)
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
*Quick note on the two toss-up: I never said Kevin Lundberg or Joe Coors would win, only that they could win (and I do have to admit surprise with the defeat of Coors by the numbers I'm seeing).  Under better leadership in this state, they very well may have won, but speculating doesn't get us anywhere.  Bottom line, while I'm surprised by the margin of defeat that Coors suffered, I'm not terribly surprised either district did what it did.  I'm giving myself half credit for each of these, though, to be fair.

6/7


State Senate
Pre-Election Make-up: 20 Democrats, 15 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 16 Democrats, 15 Republicans, 4 toss-ups (my guess is it goes 2 and 2 for Republicans and Democrats)
Post-Election Make-up: 20 Democrats, 15 Republicans
*Okay, on this one, I was wrong.  I actually thought Lang Sais would win outside the margin of an automatic recount.  While this race is within the margin of automatic recount now (I believe 332 votes are separating them), I'm not sure that Lang can make up that many votes.

**Partial credit to me on this one for leaving it a toss-up and not doing with it what I did with SD19, because I thought about it originally.  I am a little surprised that Newell won, to be honest, but not totally shocked.

***There are two counties yet to complete reporting in this race according to the SOS site, and about 1,000 votes separating Crowder and his opponent, so it may tighten, but I don't think he'll end up losing.

18.5/20


State House
Pre-Election Make-up: 33 Republicans, 32 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 30 Democrats, 28 Republicans, 7 toss-up (my very unscientific prediction is all but 1 or 2 go Democrat based on district performance and/or active voter registration numbers, and what I know about the district and candidates)
Post-Election Make-up: 37 Democrats, 28 Republicans
*Not giving myself any credit for it, but I was right that Ellyn Hilliard did have the largest number of votes for a Republican in Boulder State House races.  Just sayin'.

**Partial credit for this one since I gave no clear prediction.

***My bad for not making this one a toss-up, I was truly surprised that J. Paul Brown lost that district with the numbers I saw.

****My only surprise in this race was Kathleen Curry not getting more votes than she did.

I'm not really surprised by any of this (other than J. Paul Brown losing, that one did catch me off guard), but I am somewhat surprised by the margins I'm seeing.  For example, I expected Robert Ramirez to lose, but not by near 10%.  Just goes to show the power of reapportionment.

63.5/65



FINAL RESULTS

Bottom line, reapportionment really shanked us.  I was overly-optimistic about the State Senate, and under-pessimistic about the State House.  Finally tally?

Out of 94 races in which I predicted an outcome, I only got 3 out and out wrong; 4 races I characterized as toss-ups (either not making a clear predictions one way or another, or which I called as "leans" the wrong way (but still kept it as a toss-up).  That equals a 96.81% accuracy rate.  Not too bad for relying solely on the three things I have always found to be the most reliable indicators in politics:
  1. Active Registered Voters,
  2. Past District Performance, and
  3. Good ol' gut instinct (which is largely based on knowing many of the districts and candidates).
No polls, no "how much money was raised", no gimmicks.  Just saying, folks.  Just saying.

Oh, and I more than once predicted Obama would win Colorado.  In fact, that was the best possible thing (well, actually, the best possible thing would have been Obama winning Colorado but losing nationally), because that is a slap in the face to the Ryan Calls and Eli Bremers and other GOP hacks of the world.  Guys, you didn't win it.  You and your ilk have now fudged up what should have been two wave Republican years (2010 and 2012), and you still haven't gotten it through your back-room, smoke-filled brains that we can't fight the party of evil with your brand of stupidity and lack of strategic vision.  

Maybe the rest of the Colorado GOP will now get the hint to make that kind of Republican 'leadership' extinct.  This isn't about radically changing the Party, this is about using common sense, a solid platform actually adhered to by candidates, and basic political strategy to actually... you know... win elections.  Liberty is a winning message, guys.  Get on the bandwagon or get off at the next stop (heck, we might even throw you off before we get to the next stop depending on how you respond to this repudiation of your inability to "make Colorado red again").