01 February 2015

Spoiler Alert! and "Close" Elections

Taken from here.

Of 101 Colorado races in 2014, only 9 races had "spoilers" (races where the winner had less than 50%).  And of those races, only 4 resulted in a Democratic victory.  That means 4% of Colorado races were "adversely" affected by third party candidates (if you're a Republican).

U.S. Senate: Cory Gardner (Republican), 48.21%
Governor: John Hickenlooper (Democratic), 49.30%
Secretary of State: Wayne Williams (Republican), 47.34%
Treasurer: Walker Stapleton (Republican), 49.87%
Senate District 5: Kerry Donovan (Democratic), 49.04%
Senate District 19: Laura Woods (Republican), 47.61%
Senate District 20: Cheri Jahn (Democratic), 46.81%
House District 17: Kit Roupe (Republican), 47.27%
House District 29: Tracy Kraft-Tharp (Democratic), 49.40%

Taken from here.

Additionally, there were 15 races where the margin of victory was within 3.5%, which one could consider to be "toss-up" seats (close enough that they can go either way in the right election circumstances).

U.S. Senate: 1.95% (39,688 votes)
Governor: 3.35% (68,238 votes)
Secretary of State: 2.36% (46,525 votes)
Senate District 5, 3.31% (1,301 votes)
Senate District 16, 2.74% (1,897 votes)
Senate District 19, 1.05% (663 votes)
Senate District 20, 0.62% (439 votes)
Senate District 22, 2.24% (1,336 votes)
Senate District 24, 1.74% (896 votes)
House District 3, 1.46% (443 votes)
House District 17, 2.02% (289 votes)
House District 30, 0.56% (106 votes)
House District 31, 0.98% (229 votes)
House District 36, 2.90% (668 votes)
House District 59, 0.50% (170 votes)

8R/7D

Taken from here.

What does all this mean?

  1. "Spoilers" actually work in favor of Republicans, too, so quit yer whining.
  2. There were a number of fairly close election in 2014--this was the Republican's year to lose, and lose they did in Colorado... way too often.  Infinitely winnable seats slipped through our grasp once again.

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