Showing posts with label spoiler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spoiler. Show all posts

01 February 2015

Spoiler Alert! and "Close" Elections

Taken from here.

Of 101 Colorado races in 2014, only 9 races had "spoilers" (races where the winner had less than 50%).  And of those races, only 4 resulted in a Democratic victory.  That means 4% of Colorado races were "adversely" affected by third party candidates (if you're a Republican).

U.S. Senate: Cory Gardner (Republican), 48.21%
Governor: John Hickenlooper (Democratic), 49.30%
Secretary of State: Wayne Williams (Republican), 47.34%
Treasurer: Walker Stapleton (Republican), 49.87%
Senate District 5: Kerry Donovan (Democratic), 49.04%
Senate District 19: Laura Woods (Republican), 47.61%
Senate District 20: Cheri Jahn (Democratic), 46.81%
House District 17: Kit Roupe (Republican), 47.27%
House District 29: Tracy Kraft-Tharp (Democratic), 49.40%

Taken from here.

Additionally, there were 15 races where the margin of victory was within 3.5%, which one could consider to be "toss-up" seats (close enough that they can go either way in the right election circumstances).

U.S. Senate: 1.95% (39,688 votes)
Governor: 3.35% (68,238 votes)
Secretary of State: 2.36% (46,525 votes)
Senate District 5, 3.31% (1,301 votes)
Senate District 16, 2.74% (1,897 votes)
Senate District 19, 1.05% (663 votes)
Senate District 20, 0.62% (439 votes)
Senate District 22, 2.24% (1,336 votes)
Senate District 24, 1.74% (896 votes)
House District 3, 1.46% (443 votes)
House District 17, 2.02% (289 votes)
House District 30, 0.56% (106 votes)
House District 31, 0.98% (229 votes)
House District 36, 2.90% (668 votes)
House District 59, 0.50% (170 votes)

8R/7D

Taken from here.

What does all this mean?

  1. "Spoilers" actually work in favor of Republicans, too, so quit yer whining.
  2. There were a number of fairly close election in 2014--this was the Republican's year to lose, and lose they did in Colorado... way too often.  Infinitely winnable seats slipped through our grasp once again.