Spoiler Alert! and "Close" Elections

Taken from here.

Of 101 Colorado races in 2014, only 9 races had "spoilers" (races where the winner had less than 50%).  And of those races, only 4 resulted in a Democratic victory.  That means 4% of Colorado races were "adversely" affected by third party candidates (if you're a Republican).

U.S. Senate: Cory Gardner (Republican), 48.21%

Governor: John Hickenlooper (Democratic), 49.30%

Secretary of State: Wayne Williams (Republican), 47.34%

Treasurer: Walker Stapleton (Republican), 49.87%

Senate District 5: Kerry Donovan (Democratic), 49.04%

Senate District 19: Laura Woods (Republican), 47.61%

Senate District 20: Cheri Jahn (Democratic), 46.81%

House District 17: Kit Roupe (Republican), 47.27%

House District 29: Tracy Kraft-Tharp (Democratic), 49.40%

Taken from here.

Additionally, there were 15 races where the margin of victory was within 3.5%, which one could consider to be "toss-up" seats (close enough that they can go either way in the right election circumstances).

U.S. Senate: 1.95% (39,688 votes)

Governor: 3.35% (68,238 votes)

Secretary of State: 2.36% (46,525 votes)
Senate District 5, 3.31% (1,301 votes)
Senate District 16, 2.74% (1,897 votes)
Senate District 19, 1.05% (663 votes)
Senate District 20, 0.62% (439 votes)
Senate District 22, 2.24% (1,336 votes)
Senate District 24, 1.74% (896 votes)
House District 3, 1.46% (443 votes)
House District 17, 2.02% (289 votes)
House District 30, 0.56% (106 votes)
House District 31, 0.98% (229 votes)
House District 36, 2.90% (668 votes)
House District 59, 0.50% (170 votes)

8R/7D

Taken from here.

What does all this mean?

1. "Spoilers" actually work in favor of Republicans, too, so quit yer whining.
2. There were a number of fairly close election in 2014--this was the Republican's year to lose, and lose they did in Colorado... way too often.  Infinitely winnable seats slipped through our grasp once again.

94%: The 2014 Election Wrap-up Post

Sorry for the long delay on this--family life and work have been a little nutty since the election.

Taken from here.

Okay, so it isn't the 97% of 2012.  But I'll take it.  Especially because, once again, Nate Silver isn't better than me (we tied this time, counting his U.S. Senate Predictions).

This election was not decided on Election Night in Colorado.  Had we gone based on Election Night results, Colorado would now have a Republican Governor, a 20R-15D Senate Majority, and a 33R-32D House Majority.  That... didn't exactly happen, now did it?

This is why early returns are, frankly, unimportant!  I watched way too many people get their hopes up.  That smashing 7%+ victory for Cory Gardner on Election Night?  It was actually just under 2%.  It wasn't a blowout.  Beauprez winning?  Nope.  He lost by 3.35%.  Taking the State House?  Ha... no.  And we barely have a Senate Majority.  Don't forget that it took weeks for Adams County to finish counting, and that there was one seat within the margins for an automatic recount in Southwest Colorado (House District 59), although the ultimate result there didn't change.

Below is a brief review of the final election results.  Results may be found on the Secretary of State's website.

Legend:
Bold denotes incumbent
Italic indicates an incorrect call
Red shows a Republican Pick-up
Blue delineates a Democratic Pick-up
Races with no-call are green

Statewide

Pre-Election Make-up: 3 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Democrats, 2 Republicans 
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Seats up: 5

• U.S. Senate (class 3): Cory Gardner (Republican)
• Governor: John Hickenlooper (Democratic)
• Attorney General: Cynthia Coffman (Republican)
• Secretary of State: Wayne Williams (Republican)
• Treasurer: Walker Stapleton (Republican)

3/5

Congressional

Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 3 Republicans, 3 Democrats, 1 toss-up
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Seats up: 7

• Congressional District 1: Diana Degette (Democratic)
• Congressional District 2: Jared Polis (Democratic)
• Congressional District 3: Scott Tipton (Republican)
• Congressional District 4: Ken Buck (Republican)
• Congressional District 5: Doug Lamborn (Republican)
• Congressional District 6: Mike Coffman (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Ed Perlmutter (Democratic)

6/6, 1 toss-up

CU Regent

Pre-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Seats up: 3

• Congressional District 2: Linda Shoemaker (Republican)
• Congressional District 6: John Carson (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Irene Griego (Democratic)

3/3

State Board of Education

Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Seats up: 3

• Congressional District 1: Valentina Flores (Democratic)
• Congressional District 3: Marcia Neal (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Jane Goff (Democratic)

3/3

State Senate

Pre-Election Make-up: 18 Democrats, 17 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 18 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 1 toss-up
Post-Election Make-up: 18 Republicans, 17 Democrats
Seats up: 18

• Senate District 1: Jerry Sonnenberg (Republican)
• Senate District 2: Kevin Grantham (Republican)
• Senate District 3: Leroy Garcia (Democratic)
• Senate District 5: Kerry Donovan (Democratic)
• Senate District 6: Ellen Roberts (Republican)
• Senate District 7: Ray Scott (Republican)
• Senate District 9: Kent Lambert (Republican)
• Senate District 11: Michael Merrifield (Democratic)
• Senate District 13: John Cooke (Republican)
• Senate District 15: Kevin Lundberg (Republican)
• Senate District 16: Tim Neville (Republican)
• Senate District 19: Laura Woods (Republican)
• Senate District 20: Cheri Jahn (Democratic)
• Senate District 22: Andy Kerr (Democratic)
• Senate District 24: Beth Martinez-Humenik (Republican)
• Senate District 30: Chris Holbert (Republican)
• Senate District 32: Irene Aguilar (Democratic)
• Senate District 34: Lucia Guzman (Democratic)

15/17, 1 toss-up

State House

Pre-Election Make-up: 37 Democrats, 28 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 36 Democrats, 29 Republicans
Post-Election Make-up: 34 Democrats, 31 Republicans
Seats up: 65

• House District 1: Susan Lontine (Democratic)
• House District 2: Alec Garnett (Democratic)
• House District 3:  Daniel Kagan (Democratic)
• House District 4: Dan Pabon (Democratic)
• House District 5: Crisanta Duran (Democratic)
• House District 6: Lois Court (Democratic)
• House District 7: Angela Williams (Democratic)
• House District 8: Beth McCann (Democratic)
• House District 9:  Paul Rosenthal (Democratic)
• House District 10: Dickey Lee Hullinghorst (Democratic)
• House District 11: Jonathan Singer (Democratic)
• House District 12: Mike Foote (Democratic)
• House District 13: K.C. Becker (Democratic)
• House District 14: Dan Nordberg (Republican)
• House District 15: Gordon Klingenschmitt (Republican)
• House District 16: Janak Joshi (Republican)
• House District 17: Kit Roupe (Republican)
• House District 18: Pete Lee (Democratic)
• House District 19: Paul Lundeen (Republican)
• House District 20: Terri Carver (Republican)
• House District 21: Lois Landgraf (Republican)
• House District 22: Justin Everett (Republican)
• House District 23: Max Tyler (Democratic)
• House District 24: Jessie Danielson (Democratic)
• House District 25: Jon Keyser (Republican)
• House District 26: Diane Mitsch-Bush (Democratic)
• House District 27: Libby Szabo (Republican)
• House District 28: Brittany Pettersen (Democratic)
• House District 29: Tracy Kraft-Tharp (Democratic)
• House District 30: JoAnn Windholz (Republican)
• House District 31: Joe Salazar (Democratic)
• House District 32: Dominick Moreno (Democratic)
• House District 33: Dianne Primavera (Democratic)
• House District 34: Steve Lebsock (Democratic)
• House District 35: Faith Winter (Democratic)
• House District 36: Su Ryden (Democratic)
• House District 37: Jack Tate (Republican)
• House District 38: Kathleen Conti (Republican)
• House District 39: Polly Lawrence (Republican)
• House District 40: John Buckner (Republican)
• House District 41: Jovan Melton (Democratic)
• House District 42: Ronda Fields (Democratic)
• House District 43: Kevin Van Winkle (Republican)
• House District 44: Kim Ransom (Republican)
• House District 45: Patrick Neville (Republican)
• House District 46: Daneya Esgar (Democratic)
• House District 47: Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff (Republican)
• House District 48: Stephen Humphries (Republican)
• House District 49: Perry Buck (Republican)
• House District 50: Dave Young (Democratic)
• House District 51: Brian DelGrosso (Republican)
• House District 52: Joann Ginal (Democratic)
• House District 53: Jeni Arndt (Democratic)
• House District 54: Yeulin Willett (Republican)
• House District 55: Dan Thurlow (Republican)
• House District 56: Kevin Priola (Republican)
• House District 57: Bob Rankin (Republican)
• House District 58: Don Coram (Republican)
• House District 59: J. Paul Brown (Republican)
• House District 60: Jim Wilson (Republican)
• House District 61: Millie Hamner (Democratic)
• House District 62: Ed Vigil (Democratic)
• House District 63: Lori Saine (Republican)
• House District 64: Tim Dore (Republican)
• House District 65: Jon Becker (Republican)

63/65