94%: The 2014 Election Wrap-up Post

Sorry for the long delay on this--family life and work have been a little nutty since the election.

Taken from here.

Okay, so it isn't the 97% of 2012.  But I'll take it.  Especially because, once again, Nate Silver isn't better than me (we tied this time, counting his U.S. Senate Predictions).

This election was not decided on Election Night in Colorado.  Had we gone based on Election Night results, Colorado would now have a Republican Governor, a 20R-15D Senate Majority, and a 33R-32D House Majority.  That... didn't exactly happen, now did it?

This is why early returns are, frankly, unimportant!  I watched way too many people get their hopes up.  That smashing 7%+ victory for Cory Gardner on Election Night?  It was actually just under 2%.  It wasn't a blowout.  Beauprez winning?  Nope.  He lost by 3.35%.  Taking the State House?  Ha... no.  And we barely have a Senate Majority.  Don't forget that it took weeks for Adams County to finish counting, and that there was one seat within the margins for an automatic recount in Southwest Colorado (House District 59), although the ultimate result there didn't change.

Below is a brief review of the final election results.  Results may be found on the Secretary of State's website.

Legend:
Bold denotes incumbent
Italic indicates an incorrect call
Red shows a Republican Pick-up
Blue delineates a Democratic Pick-up
Races with no-call are green

Statewide

Pre-Election Make-up: 3 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Democrats, 2 Republicans 
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Seats up: 5

• U.S. Senate (class 3): Cory Gardner (Republican)
• Governor: John Hickenlooper (Democratic)
• Attorney General: Cynthia Coffman (Republican)
• Secretary of State: Wayne Williams (Republican)
• Treasurer: Walker Stapleton (Republican)

3/5

Congressional

Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 3 Republicans, 3 Democrats, 1 toss-up
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Seats up: 7

• Congressional District 1: Diana Degette (Democratic)
• Congressional District 2: Jared Polis (Democratic)
• Congressional District 3: Scott Tipton (Republican)
• Congressional District 4: Ken Buck (Republican)
• Congressional District 5: Doug Lamborn (Republican)
• Congressional District 6: Mike Coffman (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Ed Perlmutter (Democratic)

6/6, 1 toss-up

CU Regent

Pre-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 5 Republicans, 4 Democrats
Seats up: 3

• Congressional District 2: Linda Shoemaker (Republican)
• Congressional District 6: John Carson (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Irene Griego (Democratic)

3/3

State Board of Education

Pre-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Post-Election Make-up: 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Seats up: 3

• Congressional District 1: Valentina Flores (Democratic)
• Congressional District 3: Marcia Neal (Republican)
• Congressional District 7: Jane Goff (Democratic)

3/3

State Senate

Pre-Election Make-up: 18 Democrats, 17 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 18 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 1 toss-up
Post-Election Make-up: 18 Republicans, 17 Democrats
Seats up: 18

• Senate District 1: Jerry Sonnenberg (Republican)
• Senate District 2: Kevin Grantham (Republican)
• Senate District 3: Leroy Garcia (Democratic)
• Senate District 5: Kerry Donovan (Democratic)
• Senate District 6: Ellen Roberts (Republican)
• Senate District 7: Ray Scott (Republican)
• Senate District 9: Kent Lambert (Republican)
• Senate District 11: Michael Merrifield (Democratic)
• Senate District 13: John Cooke (Republican)
• Senate District 15: Kevin Lundberg (Republican)
• Senate District 16: Tim Neville (Republican)
• Senate District 19: Laura Woods (Republican)
• Senate District 20: Cheri Jahn (Democratic)
• Senate District 22: Andy Kerr (Democratic)
• Senate District 24: Beth Martinez-Humenik (Republican)
• Senate District 30: Chris Holbert (Republican)
• Senate District 32: Irene Aguilar (Democratic)
• Senate District 34: Lucia Guzman (Democratic)

15/17, 1 toss-up

State House

Pre-Election Make-up: 37 Democrats, 28 Republicans
Projected Post-Election Make-up: 36 Democrats, 29 Republicans
Post-Election Make-up: 34 Democrats, 31 Republicans
Seats up: 65

• House District 1: Susan Lontine (Democratic)
• House District 2: Alec Garnett (Democratic)
• House District 3:  Daniel Kagan (Democratic)
• House District 4: Dan Pabon (Democratic)
• House District 5: Crisanta Duran (Democratic)
• House District 6: Lois Court (Democratic)
• House District 7: Angela Williams (Democratic)
• House District 8: Beth McCann (Democratic)
• House District 9:  Paul Rosenthal (Democratic)
• House District 10: Dickey Lee Hullinghorst (Democratic)
• House District 11: Jonathan Singer (Democratic)
• House District 12: Mike Foote (Democratic)
• House District 13: K.C. Becker (Democratic)
• House District 14: Dan Nordberg (Republican)
• House District 15: Gordon Klingenschmitt (Republican)
• House District 16: Janak Joshi (Republican)
• House District 17: Kit Roupe (Republican)
• House District 18: Pete Lee (Democratic)
• House District 19: Paul Lundeen (Republican)
• House District 20: Terri Carver (Republican)
• House District 21: Lois Landgraf (Republican)
• House District 22: Justin Everett (Republican)
• House District 23: Max Tyler (Democratic)
• House District 24: Jessie Danielson (Democratic)
• House District 25: Jon Keyser (Republican)
• House District 26: Diane Mitsch-Bush (Democratic)
• House District 27: Libby Szabo (Republican)
• House District 28: Brittany Pettersen (Democratic)
• House District 29: Tracy Kraft-Tharp (Democratic)
• House District 30: JoAnn Windholz (Republican)
• House District 31: Joe Salazar (Democratic)
• House District 32: Dominick Moreno (Democratic)
• House District 33: Dianne Primavera (Democratic)
• House District 34: Steve Lebsock (Democratic)
• House District 35: Faith Winter (Democratic)
• House District 36: Su Ryden (Democratic)
• House District 37: Jack Tate (Republican)
• House District 38: Kathleen Conti (Republican)
• House District 39: Polly Lawrence (Republican)
• House District 40: John Buckner (Republican)
• House District 41: Jovan Melton (Democratic)
• House District 42: Ronda Fields (Democratic)
• House District 43: Kevin Van Winkle (Republican)
• House District 44: Kim Ransom (Republican)
• House District 45: Patrick Neville (Republican)
• House District 46: Daneya Esgar (Democratic)
• House District 47: Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff (Republican)
• House District 48: Stephen Humphries (Republican)
• House District 49: Perry Buck (Republican)
• House District 50: Dave Young (Democratic)
• House District 51: Brian DelGrosso (Republican)
• House District 52: Joann Ginal (Democratic)
• House District 53: Jeni Arndt (Democratic)
• House District 54: Yeulin Willett (Republican)
• House District 55: Dan Thurlow (Republican)
• House District 56: Kevin Priola (Republican)
• House District 57: Bob Rankin (Republican)
• House District 58: Don Coram (Republican)
• House District 59: J. Paul Brown (Republican)
• House District 60: Jim Wilson (Republican)
• House District 61: Millie Hamner (Democratic)
• House District 62: Ed Vigil (Democratic)
• House District 63: Lori Saine (Republican)
• House District 64: Tim Dore (Republican)
• House District 65: Jon Becker (Republican)

63/65

By the Numbers, Part 2: Federal Elections

Look for an analysis post on September 25 for more details on registered voters and recent district performance for all 8 federal races.

Found here.

There are 8 federal races in Colorado this year—one in each of our 7 Congressional Districts and a statewide U.S. Senate race.  There are 29 total candidates across 5 parties.  Each race has at least a Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate.  3 races (in CDs 2, 5, and 7) are straight-up votes between Republican and Democratic candidates only. (Figure 1)

Figure 1: Federal Candidates

Republican candidates have raised a total of over $11,000,000 for federal races in Colorado (Figure 2) and spent just under $5,000,000 so far (Figure 3).  Numbers are current as of the July 15 reporting period.  The next report will not be until October.

Figure 2: Republican Contributions

Figure 3: Republican Expenditures

Democratic candidates have raised a total of over $17,500,000 for federal races in Colorado (Figure 4) and spent just under $9,000,000 so far (Figure 5).  Numbers are current as of the July 15 reporting period.  The next report will not be until October.

Figure 4: Democratic Contributions

Figure 5: Democratic Expenditures

Historically, Colorado is not the red state, at least federally, that everyone seems to think it once was. Since 1876, Colorado has only had Republican Representation in the districts up for election in 2014 51.56% of the time--barely over half. (Figure 6)

Figure 6: Historic Federal Performance

Please note: there were two at-large districts at various times before 1914, which were represented by Republicans 73.33% of the time they were around.  Please also note that in CD1 (once) and CD2 (five times), Populists Representatives were elected.

By the Numbers: a new series

It seems almost everyone in politics wants to know what the latest poll says, but elections are not determined by polls.  In point of fact, I find polls to be largely irrelevant to the outcome of an election.  If you want polls, you’re in the wrong place. Most races I’m discussing don’t have polling data, and those that do are easily accessible via Google if you so desire.

This series is a look at some of the numbers that are part of the 2014 election in Colorado, from County-Wide to Federal Races. Some are just interesting statistics that I have found, others are good measures of how races will likely turn out in November.

This is an 8 part series, with new charts and graphs every Monday and Thursday for two and a half weeks. The Thursday and Monday following the last chart post will include some analysis, and the final Thursday in the series will have my 2014 election predictions.

Sometime during this series as well, I'll have an updated methodology post, discussing lessons learned in the 2012 predictions and how I think 2014 will be even better.  Also, look for the 2014 General Election Right Republicans Initiative post.  Those are the candidates I like and think you should support, not necessarily ones I think will win (although sometimes they will).

Check back frequently for updates!

Schedule for BTN Series Posts

• Monday September 8 – County-wide Races
• Thursday September 11 – Federal Races
• Monday September 15 – State House Races
• Thursday September 18 – State Senate Races
• Monday September 22 – Statewide Races
• Thursday September 25 – Federal and Statewide Analysis
• Monday September 29 – State Legislative Analysis
• Thursday October 2 – 2014 Election Predictions