By the Numbers: a new series

It seems almost everyone in politics wants to know what the latest poll says, but elections are not determined by polls.  In point of fact, I find polls to be largely irrelevant to the outcome of an election.  If you want polls, you’re in the wrong place. Most races I’m discussing don’t have polling data, and those that do are easily accessible via Google if you so desire.

This series is a look at some of the numbers that are part of the 2014 election in Colorado, from County-Wide to Federal Races. Some are just interesting statistics that I have found, others are good measures of how races will likely turn out in November.

This is an 8 part series, with new charts and graphs every Monday and Thursday for two and a half weeks. The Thursday and Monday following the last chart post will include some analysis, and the final Thursday in the series will have my 2014 election predictions.

Sometime during this series as well, I'll have an updated methodology post, discussing lessons learned in the 2012 predictions and how I think 2014 will be even better.  Also, look for the 2014 General Election Right Republicans Initiative post.  Those are the candidates I like and think you should support, not necessarily ones I think will win (although sometimes they will).

Check back frequently for updates!

Schedule for BTN Series Posts

• Monday September 8 – County-wide Races
• Thursday September 11 – Federal Races
• Monday September 15 – State House Races
• Thursday September 18 – State Senate Races
• Monday September 22 – Statewide Races
• Thursday September 25 – Federal and Statewide Analysis
• Monday September 29 – State Legislative Analysis
• Thursday October 2 – 2014 Election Predictions

Primary 2014: the Aftermath

This is the first primary in a while where I wasn't emotionally invested in a number of races... just a few.  That was very weird for me.  Most of the races turned out exactly how I expected (even if it isn't what I wanted).

Below are the results (and a little commentary), with italicized names ones I recommended as part of the 'Right' Republicans Initiative for the 2014 Primary-- and (NR) denotes "No Recommendation" from me.  Primaries are notoriously difficult to predict because it is all about turnout.  Look for more 'Right' Republicans running in November coming soon, as well as election predictions based on hard numbers like I did in 2012 coming in September.

Governor: Bob Beauprez
I don't know if I'm surprised or not by this.  I almost expected it... even though it was probably the worst possible result for Republican chances in November.

Congressional District 1: Martin Walsh (NR)
No surprise here--the write-in candidate didn't even make a dent.

Congressional District 3: Scott Tipton
Again, no real surprise.  No Cantor-Brat upsets in Colorado this time.

State Board of Education, Congressional District 3: Marcia Neal
This was an odd race that I really had no expectations in, so that the incumbent won isn't too shocking.

Congressional District 4: Ken Buck
The only thing truly surprising here to me was the margin of victory... and that Laffey got 4th!  Still disappointing that Ken won... I was hoping Scott would pull it off.

Congressional District 5: Doug Lamborn
This was a lot closer than I expected.  A lot.

Senate District 19: Laura Woods
I was really worried about this one, and am glad that Laura pulled it off.  Hopefully three-time loser Lang Sias will not take a fourth whack at the losing apple in the future.

Senate District 22: Tony Sanchez
With the dynamics in this race, I am not surprised Tony won (although I still contend Mario would have been a superior general election candidate).  The margin on this one was crazy to me... 2-1?  Never would have expected that.

House District 15: Gordon Klingenschmitt (NR)
From what I've been hearing in the district, this isn't a surprise at all.

House District 20: Terri Carver (NR)
I knew too little about this race to have an inkling of how it'd go down, so it'd be hard for any outcome to surprise me here.

House District 22: Justin Everett
No surprise, and I'm glad to see the slap down was even bigger than in 2012.

House District 26: Chuck McConnell
I hope that, unlike 2012, the Party helps out in this race because it is a moveable seat--especially with a good candidate like Chuck.

House District 37: Jack Tate (NR)
Surprised by the margin, but not the outcome.

House District 46: Brian Mater
81.47%?  Nice job, Brian!  With this win, HD46 just might be in play this year.  We'll see what September says.

House District 55: Dan Thurlow
Another Liberty win--seems infectious in legislative races this year!

House District 63: Lori Saine
Once again, Lori handily dispatches her challenger.  Maybe after two losses, they'll take a hint?

Adams County Sheriff: Mike McIntosh
Surprised but glad to see this one turn out the way it did!

Jefferson County Sheriff: Jeff Shrader
I hate to admit it... I'm not terribly surprised, although I was hopeful Jim could pull this one off.  It certainly wasn't for lack of trying or campaigning.  Jim worked his tail off for this, and I don't know what else he could have done differently to be honest.  It's very hard to beat that kind of machine.  JeffCo county office politics is about as incestuous as they get.

Mesa County Sheriff: Steve King
I expect that Steve will be forced to resign as a candidate and be replaced by a vacancy committee after being fired by the Sheriff's office during his campaign.  I'm going to mark this one up as TBD before I pass any judgments on it.


As always, don't forget to join in the conversation and comment on the post--were you surprised by any of the outcomes?  Sharing is also appreciated.